Introduction
At the age of 15, while still completing middle school, Path experienced his first stock market crash.
Most people spend ten years without necessarily mastering the essence of trading. However, this 25-year-old graduate has spent ten years honing himself into a trading actuary who regards "survival" as the primary principle.
Last year, he laid out the Bitcoin "Black Swan Lottery," which netted him hundreds of thousands of dollars. Behind this success is an extremely precise trading strategy. And behind this strategy is a trading philosophy called "Ergodicity."
In his eyes, trading is no longer a life-and-death adventure, but a daily cost management game. The goal is clear and defined: by continuously "brushing costs," to reduce the holding cost towards zero or even negative, ultimately ensuring that regardless of any unexpected events in the market, one can enjoy the gifts brought by "uncertainty."

Key Indicators (August 4, 16:00 HKT → August 11, 16:00 HKT)
BTC/USD +5.9% ($114,800 → $121,600), ETH/USD +20.6% ($3,550 → $4,280)
Breakout of the upper edge of the flag: Last weekend, BTC strongly broke through the top of the flag pattern, clearly preparing to retest the historical high (ATH). We maintain a bullish view, targeting a range of $125–135k (potentially reaching $140k in extreme cases), and we believe this could be the cycle high for this round of increase. Pullback risk: If the price stagnates and falls back here, it may enter an extended adjustment of the 4th wave, but we expect the $112k support level to remain solid. Once the upward extending pattern is confirmed, we expect actual volatility to rise in the next 3–6 months.
Market Theme
Risk assets rebound: United States

There are not many new developments to report this week, as the S&P 500 index has recovered from the shock of the non-farm payroll data and is approaching historical highs again. On the other hand, the Nasdaq index has benefited from strong earnings reports, setting a new record, ignoring the ongoing political turmoil of the Trump administration and new import tariff issues.
Global risk assets also performed well, with European and Japanese stock markets rising due to ongoing trade resolutions, while the United States made concessions on tariff escalations and auto tax cuts.
On the other hand, this week the US-China trade truce agreement is about to expire. Some market participants expect the deadline to be extended again, but there are also concerns that the US may impose new tariffs due to China's purchase of Russian oil — India has already been sanctioned for the same behavior.
The good news is that the United States and Russia plan to draft a new Ukraine peace agreement ahead of this week's Alaska summit, which provides another boost for risk assets.