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Altseason: A Strong Signal to Start or Just a Short-Term Wave?
In recent days, the crypto market has witnessed a strong bullish wave in many altcoins, led by Ethereum with impressive strides surpassing key resistance levels. This breakout is raising hopes for "altseason" – a period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin and provide superior returns for investors. Ethereum Leading the Bullish Trend, Alts Following Suit Ethereum has surpassed key resistance levels, leading to a strong recovery of large and mid-cap altcoins. Optimistic sentiment is spreading, fueling the hypothesis that the altseason cycle may have begun. In the past, altseason has often been accompanied by capital rotation from Bitcoin to altcoin, resulting in explosive growth across the board. Contrarian View: Altseason is Still Not "Official" However, not all experts agree. Some analysts believe that Bitcoin is still maintaining a leading position, while most alts are still quite far from their historical highs. According to analyst Darkfost, when comparing the performance between Bitcoin, the large-cap group (top 20) and the mid/small-cap group, the current cycle is still the weakest altcoin phase compared to previous cycles. The last time the market witnessed a "true" altseason was in early 2024, when the mid-cap and small-cap groups outperformed Bitcoin in a short but intense period. Currently, the bullish trend of altcoins is mainly concentrated on a few major projects, while smaller and mid-sized coins – which are the "specialty" of altseason – have yet to truly explode. TOTAL2 Approaching Important Resistance Level The altcoin market capitalization (TOTAL2) is currently at 1.57 trillion USD, up 13.21% in just one week and approaching the peak region of 2025 around 1.6 trillion USD – a key resistance level that has repeatedly halted previous bullish momentum. The chart shows a sustainable bullish trend since the beginning of 2024, with prices consistently maintaining above the 50-week moving average, while the 100-week and 200-week MAs continue to trend upwards, reinforcing the long-term positive trend. If TOTAL2 breaks out successfully, the next target could be the historical peak range of 1.75–1.8 trillion USD, signaling a strong increase in the flow of capital shifting from Bitcoin to alts. Conversely, if it cannot break through the resistance of 1.6 trillion USD, the market may have a short-term correction to the support zone of 1.4 trillion USD – coinciding with the 50-week MA. Conclusion Currently, the market is witnessing a strong growth of altcoins, but the data suggests that this may still just be an "altcoin rally" during a Bitcoin-dominated phase, rather than a comprehensive altseason. To confirm a true altseason, analysts will wait for a clear breakout signal from the mid-cap and small-cap groups compared to BTC. The coming weeks will play a decisive role in the direction of the entire market.