Ethereum (ETH) price prediction: monthly rise of 41% holding above key trend line, institutional get on board may drive a push to a new high of $5000.

Despite the recent slight pullback, Ethereum (ETH) still gained a strong 41% over the past 30 days, successfully rebounding from the \1400 annual low to approaching the $4000 mark. The core drivers are the improvement of the regulatory environment, the weakening of the US dollar and the successful implementation of the Pectra upgrade. The upgrade significantly smooths out gas fee volatility, and the current average transaction fee is stable below $3, a decrease of nearly 80% from the historical peak, greatly improving the competitiveness of competing products such as Solana. The on-chain TVL is as high as $81 billion (60% market share), demonstrating the dominance of DeFi. Technicals rebounded strongly after stepping back on long-term trendline support, and a valid break above the $3950 liquidity pool would open a channel to the short-term target of $4100 and new highs of $4500-$5000. The acceleration of institutional adoption and the clarification of stablecoin regulation constitute long-term benefits.

【Pectra Upgrade Reshapes Competitiveness with Revolutionary Improvement in Gas Fee Stability】 The effectiveness of the EVM upgrade is evidenced by on-chain data:

• Fee Volatility Plummets: Etherscan data shows that after the upgrade, Gas fees have been compressed to a very narrow range. Compared to the frequent peaks of $14 in November and December last year and February this year, the highest fee recently, amid rising network activity, is only $2.9.
• Enhanced Predictability: Average transaction fees enter a stable channel, providing developers and users with a predictable cost environment, significantly improving network usability.
• Performance Bottleneck Breakthrough: The optimization of the operation framework allows ETH to handle higher throughput while maintaining security, clearing obstacles for the landing of large-scale applications.

【The Dominance of DeFi is Unshakable, Ecological Barriers Continue to Strengthen】

• Absolute Dominance of TVL: Current locked value $81 billion, accounting for 60% of the entire sector, surpassing the total of all competitors including Solana ($9.6 billion).
• Preferred Choice for Institutional-Level Applications: Top TradFi and DeFi applications heavily rely on the Ethereum ecosystem, where low Gas fees and high speed have become rigid requirements to maintain a leading position.
• Layer2 Capacity Expansion and Efficiency Improvement: By combining technologies such as Rollup, the network's actual processing capability has achieved a significant leap, and the ecological moat continues to widen.

[Technical Bullish Stronghold Taking Shape, Breakthrough Imminent Aiming for New Highs] Price trend verifies the effectiveness of key support:

• Trendline Precision Defense: ETH strongly rebounded after pulling back to the long-term rising trendline, confirming that this dynamic support has become a pivotal point for bulls and bears. Maintaining this line keeps the mid-term bullish pattern unchanged.
• Key Liquidity Breakthrough Point: There is a significant liquidity pool above $3950. Breaking through this resistance may trigger a short squeeze and momentum fund inflows, leading to an explosive market.
• Target Path:
  • First Target: Break through $4000 psychological barrier and aim for $4100
  • Medium-term target: Challenge $4500 with fundamentals.
  • Trend Target: Hit the $5000 historical high area

[Fundamentals and Capital Flow Resonance Open Up Upward Space Completely] Multiple favourable information constructs ETH value support:

• Regulatory Tailwind: The U.S. stablecoin regulatory framework (such as the "Innovation Act") is gradually becoming clearer, reducing policy uncertainty.
• Institutional Involvement: Traditional financial institutions are accelerating the adoption of decentralized solutions, and expectations for spot ETFs continue to rise.
• Deflationary Mechanism: The EIP-1559 burning mechanism continues to reduce circulation, and the increase in network activity after the upgrade reinforces the deflationary effect.
• Macroeconomic Support: A weaker dollar increases the attractiveness of crypto assets, and the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve enhances the demand for risk asset allocation.

Conclusion: Ethereum has successfully resolved the long-standing issue of Gas fee fluctuations that have hindered ecological development with the Pectra upgrade, and on-chain data verifies its scalability has achieved a qualitative leap. The DeFi empire built on a TVL of hundreds of billions, along with the continuous influx of institutional funds, forms a dual moat. After receiving support on key trend lines, it only requires a final push to break through the $4000 mark. If the stability of Gas fees, institutional adoption, and favorable regulatory news create sustained resonance, ETH is expected to replicate Bitcoin's breakout trend from the beginning of the year, aiming for a historic high of $5000. Investors should focus on the momentum of the $3950 breakout and the progress of spot ETF approvals; a pullback presents a good opportunity for positioning.