#比特币市场分析# Looking back at the historical cycles of Bitcoin, it is not surprising that we have entered the so-called "bull run cooling period". Analysis from CryptoQuant shows that the bullish index has dropped from 80 to 60, reflecting a subtle change in market sentiment. This reminds me of the adjustment after the crazy rise at the end of 2017. At that time, many people thought the bull run would last indefinitely, but in reality, the market needs time to digest gains and recharge.

The current situation is remarkably similar. After reaching a new high of $123,000, a short-term consolidation or mild correction is healthy. This is both a natural result of profit-taking and related to the summer trading lull. The key point is to watch when the index value of 60 will fall below 40 - that will be the real signal that we are entering a bear market.

Interestingly, analysts mentioned that the Federal Reserve's potential rate cut in September could become a new catalyst. This reminds me of how quantitative easing after the pandemic in 2020 fueled the significant rise of cryptocurrencies. However, we must also be cautious of over-relying on macro factors - the long-term value of Bitcoin comes more from its scarcity and decentralized characteristics.

Overall, the current cooling period should not cause panic. On the contrary, it may be a good time to accumulate and refine projects. History tells us that true value will always be reflected in the cycle. Stay patient and focus on the fundamentals; this is the wisdom to navigate market fluctuations.