Data clearly shows: The Telegram mini-game ecosystem is facing a severe blow.

Recently, the data for Telegram bots and mini-programs has shown a significant downward trend. The Telegram mini-program ecosystem, once highly regarded due to the explosive growth of Clicker games, is now facing severe challenges.

Over-reliance on a single game type strategy has sown hidden dangers. When users' novelty wears off and the issue of game homogenization becomes prominent, the entire ecosystem begins to suffer backlash. The current situation demands that we deeply reflect on the mistakes of our current strategy and explore new directions that can lead the ecosystem into the next stage of development.

1. Monthly Active Users Decrease Significantly

Monitoring data for 820 Telegram projects over a month shows that despite the cumulative monthly active users (MAU) reaching 880 million, there is a significant downward trend overall. The total MAU has decreased by nearly 300 million, a decline of 33%.

Analysis shows that the downward trend is amplifying. In particular, large projects with over 5 million users, although initially declining relatively slowly, have subsequently accelerated their lead in decline, having a greater impact on the overall decrease in MAU. This indicates that even leading projects struggle to withstand the impact of user loss, reflecting deep-seated issues within the ecosystem.

2. Structural Changes Behind Project Price Fluctuations

Among the 820 monitored projects, 249 projects rose and 491 projects fell in October. Established leading projects such as Hamster, Dogs, and Catizen saw the most significant declines, reflecting a weakening of their growth momentum.

Although some emerging projects are showing positive growth, the number and magnitude are far from compensating for the decline of older projects. Among projects with a user base of less than 1 million, the number of declining projects still exceeds that of rising projects.

This highlights the structural issues of the ecosystem: the attractiveness of old projects is declining, new project growth is insufficient, and there is an urgent need for new stimuli and direction. How to provide more innovative and valuable applications while maintaining user stickiness has become an urgent topic.

3. Project Scale Migration and User Demand Downgrade

After dividing the projects into several tiers based on MAU:

• High-tier projects flow to low-tier: Projects with over 50 million MAU decreased from 2 to 1, and projects with 10 million to 50 million MAU decreased from 18 to 15.
• The level of medium-sized projects has noticeably declined: the number of projects with 2 million to 5 million MAU increased from 35 to 41, but this is mainly due to the downgrade of high-tier projects.
• The number of small projects has increased significantly: projects with MAU below 100,000 have notably increased, but this is mainly due to the downgrading of higher-tier projects.

This reflects that the entire ecosystem is undergoing a top-down contraction, with user activity generally declining and a lack of sufficient new forces to reverse the situation.

4. A Certain Competition Project Faces Challenges

Although a well-known competition project has a certain foundation in the market, it still cannot avoid the downward trend of users, and in some aspects, the decline is even more severe. The internal quality of the project varies, but there are still a few standout projects, such as "AKEDO Game" and "RentTycoon."

5. Project User Dynamic Analysis

By comparing the project changes from a week 30 days ago to the most recent week, we can gain deeper insights into user dynamics:

• The first quadrant ( continues to grow ) projects worth paying attention to.
• The projects in the second quadrant ( have recently rebounded and may have potential.
• The third quadrant project ) continues to decline, facing higher risks (.
• The fourth quadrant's part of the project ) has recently dropped significantly ( and requires vigilance.
• Projects close to the origin may be suspected of volume manipulation.

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6. Summary

The Telegram mini-program ecosystem faces two major challenges: commercialization and content.

In terms of commercialization, the existing model struggles to continuously attract buyers and lacks token application scenarios.

In terms of content, the game lacks playability, and users form inherent stereotypes.

In the future, it is necessary to create truly attractive game content, rebuild user trust, and explore new business models in order to revitalize the ecosystem.

![Data indicators have全面下跌, who has killed the vitality of Telegram mini-games?])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-1aff46ef85dd32c3e809adb33c6b8cb3.webp(