Market Observation Weekly Report [6.9 - 6.13]: Geopolitical disturbances and cautious capital resonate, Mainstream Token experiences fluctuations and adjustments, market consolidates at high levels.

Capital recovery is affected by geopolitical factors, mainstream tokens are experiencing fluctuations and adjustments, while altcoins have stopped rising and are retreating, with the market consolidating at high levels

Market Sentiment Fluctuation:

Israel's airstrike on Iran has triggered a brief risk aversion sentiment, volatility has decreased, expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have warmed, and investors' attitudes are becoming more cautious and watchful.

The inflow momentum of funds is slowing down:

A certain Bitcoin ETF product saw a net inflow of $1.02 billion, but momentum has weakened. The issuance speed of stablecoins has slowed down, and funds are maintaining a cautious attitude.

Mainstream Token trends diverge:

Bitcoin surged and then retreated, Ethereum adjusted again after a rebound, while a certain large institutional investor and long-term holders continued to increase their holdings, resulting in an overall neutral to strong structure.

The liquidity of altcoins has marginally improved, but the upward momentum is hindered:

The total market value of non-mainstream tokens has rebounded and then corrected, with the market share stopping its decline and fluctuating. The on-chain prosperity and decline indicator is at 53, still in a weak range.

The current market is in the final stage of consolidation, and in the short term, we need to wait for capital breakthroughs to cooperate, patiently observing the strengthening structure of altcoins and the signs of capital returning to mainstream tokens.

1. Macroeconomic and Market Environment

• Geopolitical Conflict: Israel and Iran have been exchanging missile/drone fire for about two weeks, with the United States providing support but not directly intervening.
• Market Reaction: Oil prices rise emotionally, Bitcoin falls back to $105,000, US stocks rebound, and volatility decreases.
• Policy Direction: The probability of a rate cut in July increases, the Federal Reserve balances inflation and economic growth, and the geopolitical situation may involve U.S.-Israel relations.

2. Analysis of Capital Flow and Mainstream Token Market Structure

External Capital Flow

• A certain ETF product saw an inflow of 2.8 billion dollars this week, with a significant increase in inflow.
• 23 billion US dollars of stablecoins were issued this week, with an average daily issuance of 321 million US dollars, which is at a high level.

Market Sentiment Indicator

• The premium for over-the-counter stablecoins continues to rise

Bitcoin ( BTC )

• Technical Analysis: The market is in a fluctuating upward range.
• On-chain chip distribution: Chips above $103,000 have increased

Ethereum(ETH)

• Performance is weaker than BTC, ETH/BTC maintains oscillation, funds continue to flow back to BTC.
• On-chain activity: The increase in active addresses may indicate the completion of a phase of bottoming out.

Macroeconomic Review

Geopolitical Focus

• Geographical Factors:

Iran's mountainous terrain and conventional military advantages make it difficult for Israel to launch a ground offensive, and the conflict may be limited to precision strikes.

• Conflict scale and duration:

A two-week low-intensity confrontation is expected, rather than a full-scale war. Jordan serves as a buffer zone limiting direct ground contact.

• Impact Assessment:

Concerns about a full-scale war have eased in the market, and geopolitical risks are mainly reflected in emotional fluctuations.

• Oil Price Trends:

The rise in oil prices is due to emotional reactions and has no direct impact on global oil supply in the short term.

• Stock Market and Cryptocurrency:

Although the US stock market is negative before the opening, it has rebounded, and Bitcoin has risen to $105,000, improving market sentiment. Volatility has retreated from the morning high, oscillating within the $1,000 range in the afternoon.

• Volatility Changes:

Compared to the beginning of the year, the market's sensitivity to geopolitical impacts has decreased, and the volatility has lessened.

• Institutional Position Impact:

Institutional holdings have increased, circulating coins have decreased, and market stability has improved. The ETF lock-up effect is significant.

• Market Rhythm：

The correlation between Bitcoin's trend and the US stock market has increased, and the longer decision-making cycles of institutions have led to a reduction in circulating chips, which has improved market stability. In the short term, it is still driven by sentiment.

• Comparison with Other Cryptocurrencies:

Ethereum and a certain public blockchain maintain a high volatility pace due to the lack of large ETFs and institutional deep participation.

Neutral Interest Rate Expectations

From October 2025 to December 2026, interest rate cut expectations will gradually adjust. The end-of-2025 meeting shows an increased probability of a 50 basis point cut to a range of 375-400 basis points, and the rate cut in 2026 may stabilize.

Key Events to Focus on Next Week

Pay attention to US retail sales, industrial production, and other economic data, as well as the European Central Bank's interest rate decision.

Macroeconomic Data Release Schedule

Multiple countries will announce important economic indicators such as CPI, PPI, and retail sales.

2. On-chain Data Analysis

1. Changes in medium and short-term data affecting the market this week

1.1 Stablecoin Capital Flow

This week, the issuance of stablecoins increased by $1.149 billion, up 14% month-on-month, with an average daily increase of $164 million, also up 14% month-on-month. The growth rate of the issuance has slowed, which may be related to BTC prices not breaking previous highs. It is recommended to maintain a cautiously optimistic attitude.

1.2 ETF Capital Flow

This week, a certain Bitcoin ETF product saw a net inflow of $1.02 billion, an increase of $1.718 billion compared to the previous week. At the beginning of the week, inflows accelerated, and the BTC price rebounded to a weekly high, but then the inflow rate cooled down, and the BTC price adjusted. Before the ETF inflow trend reverses, be wary of the risk of BTC price retracement.

A certain Ethereum ETF product has seen significant and sustained large inflows this week, which may indicate favorable factors affecting the medium to long term.

1.3 OTC Premium

This week, the OTC premium rate of USDT and USDC first rose and then fell, reflecting that funds flowed back in and then withdrew. The USDC premium rate rose again to 100%, while USDT continued to dip to 99.65%. The overall premium rate still shows a declining trend, indicating that market sentiment is leaning towards caution.

1.4 Institutional Purchase

A large institutional investor has slowed down their buying pace when BTC prices exceed $100,000, but has slightly increased their buying volume when prices retract, showing caution at high levels but a willingness to accumulate during pullbacks.

1.5 Long-term and Short-term Holders' Positions

The supply of long-term holders has reached a nearly six-month high of approximately 14.4 million BTC, indicating an increase in confidence among medium to long-term investors. The supply of short-term holders has decreased, reflecting a reduction in selling pressure. The pullback in the latter part of this week may be driven by the selling of short-term holders, while long-term holders continue to accumulate, presenting a potential buying opportunity during the pullback.

2. Mid-term data changes affecting the market this week

2.1 Coin Address Distribution and URPD

In the latter half of this week, the proportion of holdings in 1K-10K BTC addresses has decreased, while addresses holding 100-1K and 10K-100K continue to increase, indicating that the selling pressure is being absorbed by medium-sized addresses.

URPD shows that the chip concentration area is still around $103,000 - $106,000.

Summary

The technical indicators are at a critical position. If there is a reversal in the funding at the beginning of next week, a rebound may occur, continuing the high-level fluctuations; however, if the funding continues to decline, BTC may break through the key support level, forming a double top, which would be unfavorable for the market outlook.