Meme Coin Market One Year Review: Analysis of Golden Dog Quantity and Distribution

In 2024, Meme coin has become one of the main topics in the market, with remarkable wealth stories emerging from time to time. Although the performance of VC coins on some exchanges has been poor, there are still profit opportunities on-chain. Let's review the past year, analyze the quantity and distribution of gold dogs on various public chains, and explore the actual wealth effect of Meme coins.

The Public Chain with the Most Distribution of Gold Dogs

The three public chains with the highest occurrence frequency of Meme coins, specifically the Golden Dog, are SOL, Base, and BNB. Other public chains also have sporadic appearances of the Golden Dog, but the probability is lower.

1. Solana provides a good environment for the development of Meme coins and the explosion of the gold dog due to its low cost, high performance, and complete Meme coin tools (such as pumpfun).

2. Base, backed by its background support, has significantly increased the number of gold dogs, but its maturity is still not on par with Solana.

3. BNB Chain, as a mature public chain, has seen the emergence of many golden dog projects under strong promotion.

4. Due to high Gas fees on Ethereum, the success rate of Meme coins is relatively low, but once a meme dog appears, the wealth effect is strong.

5. Tron has seen well-known projects like SUNDOG rise with the help of SunPump, but the opportunity window is relatively short.

6. Emerging public chains like Sui/Aptos have an immature ecosystem and a small number of gold dogs.

Estimation of the Number of Gold Dogs on Each Public Chain

Define the three criteria for the Golden Dog:

• Price Increase: The increase after launch reached over 50 times.
• Market Cap: Peak market cap exceeds 100 million USD
• Popularity: Having significant community support or attracting a large amount of attention in a short period.

According to these standards, the estimated number of gold dogs for each public chain is as follows:

1. Solana: 1500-2000 new trading pairs added daily, approximately 550,000-730,000 Meme coins in the year. About 0.1%-0.3% meet the Golden Dog standard, considering volatility, a conservative estimate of the number of Golden Dogs in the past year is 100-150.

2. Base: Daily new trading pairs range from 2000 to 3000, with approximately 730,000 to 1,100,000 Meme coins expected within the year. The proportion of quality projects is lower than that of Solana, with about 0.05% to 0.2% meeting the Gold Dog standard. Considering the ecosystem is relatively new, it is estimated that the number of Gold Dogs in the past year is between 50 and 80.

3. BNB Chain: 500-1000 new trading pairs added daily, approximately 180,000-360,000 Meme coins within the year. The proportion of Golden Dog is about 0.1%-0.2%, conservatively estimating that the number of Golden Dogs in the past year is 30-50.

4. Ethereum: Limited by high Gas fees, there are relatively few daily trading pairs, and the proportion of gold coins is low, mainly relying on top projects. A conservative estimate of the number of gold coins in the past year is 10-15.

5. Tron: Mainly driven by the SunPump craze, with moderate daily trading volume and a limited number of gold dogs. A conservative estimate of the number of gold dogs in the past year is 10-20.

6. Emerging public chains (such as Sui, Aptos, Bitcoin Runes): the ecosystem is immature, with few golden dogs, conservatively estimating that the number of golden dogs in the past year is between 5 and 15.

Distribution of Gold Dog Appearance Time

Divide the time into four quarters (2024 Q2, Q3, Q4 and 2025 Q1) and count the number of Gold Dog Meme coins according to public chain statistics:

1. Solana dominates: The number of gold dogs is highest every quarter, with peak periods in Q2 2024 and Q1 2025 (30-40).

2. Base rapid growth: increasing from 10-15 in Q2 to 15-25 in Q4, reflecting the capital inflow and ecological maturity in 2024.

3. The overall stability of the BNB Chain: A slight increase in Q4 (10-15 new), mainly influenced by the founder's initiatives, but the overall addition is limited.

4. Ethereum scarcity: only 2-5 every quarter, high Gas fees limit the explosion.

5. Tron Brief Peak: In Q3, it reached 5-7 due to SUNDOG and SunPump, then fell back.

The overall quarterly distribution is relatively balanced: the total number for the year is between 205 and 330, with an average of 50 to 80 per quarter, and Q4 (56 to 90) is the peak for the year.

Investor Analysis of Catching the Golden Dog

"Grabbing the address of the golden dog" refers to the number of addresses that have more than 10 times the increase, which are usually early participants who bought shortly after the project went live (within hours to days) or investors who accurately bottomed out at the price trough.

The opportunity for a 10x increase is mainly concentrated in the early stage of the Golden Dog's outbreak, and the window usually lasts only a few hours. Therefore, large investors and early participants capture most of the profits, while the majority of addresses buy in at high levels, missing the 10x window.

Overall, Solana and Base may have a slightly higher proportion of successful addresses (2%-5%) due to low costs and high transaction volumes; Ethereum has a lower proportion (0.5%-2%) due to high Gas fees.

Conclusion

1. Golden Dog Distribution: Solana, Base, and BNB Chain are the three most active public chains for Golden Dog, with Solana performing the best.

2. Golden Dog Characteristics and Time Distribution: The Golden Dog is defined as a coin that has increased by more than 50 times, has a peak market value of over 100 million USD, and has significant community support. Q4 2024 is expected to be the peak period for Golden Dogs, with a total of 56-90 Golden Dog projects created.

3. Actual profit situation: Profit opportunities are mainly concentrated within a few hours after the project goes live. Approximately 2%-5% of addresses on the Solana chain have achieved returns of over 10 times, totaling about 900,000 to 3.6 million addresses.

4. Market Characteristics: Multi-chain hot rotation is the norm, making it difficult to prepare sufficient liquidity on every public chain. Even when the overall market condition is poor, there will still be localized hot opportunities.

Although on-chain speculative activities may temporarily decrease, they will not stop completely. The meme coin market may迎来第二春, and investors should be prepared and pay attention to market dynamics.