Forecast for the price of Solana (SOL) this week – What you need to know!

The price of Solana (SOL) has broken out of the accumulation zone in July ahead of the release of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes of America (FOMC).

Although this could be a signal for a strong 5% increase to the level of 160 dollars, the options market is recording a significant amount of hedging bets ( bearish position ).

SOL Price Chart | Source: TradingView## SOL traders remain cautious

In most cases, the FOMC meeting minutes are often a driving factor of volatility, as traders use it to assess the Fed's views and outlook on interest rate cuts.

In fact, from July 7 to July 9, the sentiment in the options market shifted from a Put/Call ratio of (P/C) leaning towards a bullish trend at 0.35 to a negative assessment of 1.19 at the time of writing.

This means that putting a bet on a price decrease has a higher fee than calling a bet on a price increase. In other words, traders are preparing for a correction if the FOMC minutes show a hawkish stance.

Source: LaevitasCould the surge in short-selling pressure slow down the breakout mid-week and in July? At the time of writing, the derivatives market remains in a sideways state, with open contracts (OI) fluctuating around 7.1 billion dollars.

This indicates that speculative interest in July is stagnating, in contrast to the recovery from 4 billion dollars to over 7 billion dollars in Q2. If OI does not expand, the SOL breakout may just be "fake."

Meanwhile, there is no strong buying force from the spot market. According to data from Coinalyze, the CVD index (Cumulative Volume Delta – which tracks total demand and selling pressure) has decreased in early July.

!()https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-c9e8c2a90d039aa4285e8caf667f9943.webp(Source: CoinalyzeHowever, OI has increased by 11% during the same period, indicating that the price action in July and the recent breakout have mainly been driven by speculation and leverage. Without real demand from the spot market, this upward momentum may only last for a short time or could be reversed.

In the medium term, expectations surrounding the Solana ETF fund may shape the trend for the third quarter. However, this week, SOL may be dominated by liquidation events.

If so, after rising to $158, the price may return to "hunt" Long orders using leverage around $145. Currently, there are nearly $600 million in accumulated Long orders at the $145 mark, making this a potential "price magnet."

!)[solana]https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-6386be58079f7da1aa6ba974f05d610c.webp(Source: CoinGlassHowever, the recovery in Q2 has shown a bullish structure after protecting the actual price level )which is the average cost price of most SOL holders[solana].

Any prolonged price drop that stays below the current real price of ( which is 131 dollars) will invalidate the market structure in an upward trend.

!()https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-32d183435b7113a0eec6d96039194ba3.webp(Source: GlassnodeĐình Đình