Latest data shows that the financial market's expectations for the recent monetary policy direction of The Federal Reserve (FED) are forming. According to the analysis tools from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the market generally believes that the likelihood of the FED maintaining the current interest rate level at the July meeting is extremely high, reaching 95.3%. Only less than 5% of expectations believe there may be a slight rate cut.

However, looking ahead to the monetary policy meeting in September, there is a significant divergence in market expectations. Approximately 35% expect the interest rate to remain unchanged, while over 60% lean towards the expectation that the Federal Reserve (FED) will begin a rate-cutting cycle, with the vast majority anticipating a reduction of 25 basis points. A minority even predicts a possible cut of 50 basis points.

This expectation reflects the market's complex view of the U.S. economic outlook. In the short term, economic data remains relatively strong, and inflationary pressures persist, so the Federal Reserve (FED) may remain cautious. However, as time goes on, economic growth may face more challenges, and inflationary pressures may ease, which could create conditions for the Federal Reserve (FED) to adopt a more accommodative policy before the end of the year.

In any case, these expected data indicate that market participants are closely monitoring every economic indicator that could affect the Federal Reserve's decisions, and are continuously adjusting their expectations and investment strategies accordingly. In the coming months, every statement from the Federal Reserve and every important economic data could trigger severe market reactions.