Matrixport: Bitcoin may break through key resistance levels and move towards a new trading range.

According to the latest weekly report from Matrix on Target, on July 4th, despite Bitcoin prices continuing to trade sideways within a narrow range, multiple technical indicators and market data suggest that it may soon break through the key trendline resistance and move towards a new trading range.

The report indicates that Bitcoin ETFs have attracted approximately $14 billion in capital inflows since April, exceeding the $4 billion that can be explained by spot prices, showing an increased recognition among institutional investors of Bitcoin as a long-term allocation asset. At the same time, Bitcoin volatility has dropped to a multi-year low, with weekly implied volatility maintained at around 30%, lowering the threshold for institutional capital to enter.

From a seasonal performance perspective, July has traditionally been a strong month for Bitcoin, with seven increases in the past ten years and an average increase of 9.1%. Analysts expect that with external factors such as a shift to a more dovish Fed policy and favorable US stock earnings, this round of rebound may challenge the $116,000 resistance level, and in an optimistic scenario, it could extend to $120,000.

It is worth noting that the current capital efficiency in the cryptocurrency market is continuously declining, with the total capital inflow for the entire year of 2025 expected to be lower than the peak in 2024. This means that the capital density required to drive Bitcoin prices upward has significantly increased, with every 1 dollar invested only able to leverage approximately 2.0 to 2.6 dollars in market value.