The probability of a rate cut in July approaches zero! The US non-farm payrolls in June were extremely strong, US stocks surged, and Bitcoin climbed above $110,000.

The US non-farm payroll report for June was released on the evening of July 3, showing that the US labor market remains stronger than expected, thereby overturning the market's bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve on July (Fed), and also decreasing the probability of a rate cut in September compared to before the data was released. (Background: US Treasury Secretary Yellen: The Fed will definitely cut rates in September! Trump’s tariffs did not worsen inflation) (Context: Powell did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, stating that tariffs would affect inflation if rates were cut) The non-farm payroll report released by the US Department of Labor on the evening of July 3 exceeded market expectations, with impressive employment data overturning the market's bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve on July (Fed), and also causing the probability of a rate cut in September to decline compared to before the data was released. The non-farm report outlines a strong employment picture According to reports from Morningstar and CoinDesk, the US non-farm payroll in June added 147,000 jobs, far exceeding the estimate of 110,000; the data for May was also revised up from 139,000 to 144,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, better than the market estimate of 4.3%. The year-over-year growth rate of average hourly earnings slightly slowed to 3.7%, alleviating wage inflation concerns to some extent, but overall still indicating a tight demand for the labor market. Rate cut bets retreated immediately After the data was released, interest rate futures traders immediately withdrew their expectations for a rate cut in July. The market's probability of a rate cut in September also fell back. Analyst Jonnelle Marte pointed out on July 3: "Before delving into these data, the unexpectedly strong performance of non-farm payrolls may support the Fed's reasons to hold steady for a longer period this year, and will almost certainly eliminate concerns about the labor market, thus ruling out the possibility of a rate cut in July." According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market is almost certain that there will be no rate cut this month; as for September, although the market still expects a high probability of a rate cut, the probability of a rate cut has already fallen from 71.9% the day before to 67.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged has sharply risen from 6.3% to 27.7%. US stocks rise collectively, S&P 500 hits new high After the non-farm report was released, the four major US stock indices all rose, with the S&P 500 index hitting a historic high during the session: Dow Jones Industrial Average: up 0.77%, or 341.11 points, currently reported at 44,828.04 points S&P 500 Index: up 0.83%, or 51.93 points, currently reported at 6,279.35 points Nasdaq Index: up 1.02%, or 207.97 points, currently reported at 20,601.01 points Philadelphia Semiconductor Index: up 0.64%, or 36.07 points, currently reported at 5,647.12 points Bitcoin continues momentum breaking through $110,000 In the crypto assets sector, Bitcoin surged again to $110,000 on the evening of July 3, stimulated by the non-farm report, reaching a high of $110,529, and was reported at $109,165 at the time of writing, with a 24-hour increase of 1.93%. Related reports Trump’s obsession with rate cuts: what exactly is he worried about? To win Powell's favor? Fed Governor Waller signals dovish: The Fed may cut rates as early as July, the impact of tariffs is temporary The Fed's mouthpiece: Trump pressures two Fed officials to support rate cuts, Powell is the biggest loser <Rate cut probability trending to zero! US June non-farm employment is super strong, US stocks rise collectively, Bitcoin stands above $110,000> This article was originally published in BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media.